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Sunday, December 14, 2025

3 things very wealthy people do before a market crash (so that we can prepare)

Nation building via learning and being the best in business 













 It happened in 1933, 2008, is it happening in 2025 There are three things that super rich investors do before a crash (do they have something we dont have why they can see a crash before it happens?

This is what they do:

1.  They liquidate their assets (especially if they can see if the assets:  stocks real estate are overvalued)
     They position themselves into liquid assets getting ready for 2.  We see Buffet with $325 Billion hoard of cash
2.   They position themselves into precious metal like silver or gold.  In the case of Bill Gates, positioning for farmland invested in 275,000 acres of farmland
3.   They to take advantage of debased financial assets with put option, debt swaps, and shorting to do bargain hunting and or vulture investing.




Buying a put option

You can also buy a put option to express a directional bias. A long put is similar to short selling a stock. The outlook is for the stock to decline after the put has been purchased and subsequently sell the option back at a higher price. Because of certain account type restrictions you may not be able to short stock, so buying a long put enables you to have a bearish position in a security with reduced capital allocation. 

Long puts have defined risk (the original cost of the option is the most you can lose) and undefined profit potential. Puts are typically more expensive than calls because investors are willing to pay a higher premium to protect against downside risk when hedging positions.

Selling a put option can also be an advantageous strategy to purchase a stock, because the credit from the put option reduces the cost basis of the stock position if assigned. Many investors sell puts on stocks they are happy to own and gladly accept payment in return. A short put option can be thought of as a limit order. 

For example, you might sell a put at a price you believe is support. Instead of waiting for the share price to fall and trigger your order, you essentially get “paid” to wait for the price to decline below the short put option’s strike price. If the stock price never drops below the strike price, you get to keep the premium.

Think about it: if a stock is trading at $102, and you would buy it at $100, why not sell a put with a $100 strike price? If you receive $5.00 for selling the put, you’ve reduced the position’s cost-basis to $95. You’re already up $500 per contract!

(Note: to sell a “naked” put, or cash-secured put, your account must have enough capital to purchase 100 shares at the contract’s strike price).

Put option spreads

While some of these use cases for put options may sound too good to be true, there are risks associated with selling options. As mentioned before, a short put option has undefined risk. That’s where spreads come in handy.

A spread combines two or more options into a single position to define risk for the seller or reduce cost for the buyer.  

bull put credit spread has the same bullish bias as a single-leg short put, but a long put is purchased below the short option to define the position’s risk. You’ll take in less credit because you have to buy a put option, and the credit received is still your maximum potential profit. But you can rest easy knowing your max loss is defined by the spread width minus the credit received.

For example, if a $5 wide bull put spread sold at $50 collects a $1.00 credit, the maximum profit potential is $100 if the stock price is above the short put at expiration. The max loss is $400 if the stock price is below $45 at expiration because the broker would automatically buy shares at $50 and sell shares at $45. (Remember, short put = buy, long put = sell). The trade’s break-even point is the short put strike minus the premium received.





Joseph Kennedy, Ackman are very famous for this.  They made their killing when the market was crashing.

Why is crash just around the corner (6 most to 18 mos)

1.  Overvaluedd stocks
2.  Huge US 38trillion debt
3.  Crashing real estate:

      House overpriced at 50%  (spreading homelessness in US)
      30-40% vacancy rate of  commercial real estate)
4.   End of petrodollar
5.   End of US as reserve currency
6.   Unwinding of the carry trade due to yen increase of bond rate.    Japan problem can take US with 
      it      

Gold mine for investors - real estate in the provinces (even farmlands, phase 2 in trades for zillionaires)

Nation building via learning and being the best in business

Investors have focussed on MM condos, commercial, rentals and neglected the provinces.  Local investors have bet consistently in local developments:   malls, rentals, subdivision.    We are small player but we played out in the province.

The second phase for traders/investors in volatile market is to invest in gold.  The substitute by Gates and Zuckerberg is to purchase farmlands.  This is the option for stock and financial instrument trader.  This was the playbook for Antonio to go into RE in the 80s with Youngstown development






Saturday, December 13, 2025

Focus enables you to see other possibilities and solutions to the business processes which can add tremendously to efficiency and wealth creation

Nation building via learning and being the best in business








                                               Wide cut, zero turn


                                       DIY RC lawn mower with caster wheel and  RC accessories
                                       RC receiver and motor can be installed easily (not available in PHL?

                                            PC 40 soon to be delivered either in LU or HGGMP


                                                2022,   placed on ad Dec 9, Php 827,000


Machinery line Philippines Komatsu pc 40

This post thought of diversifying into agri forestry products But there seem to be many problems and gaps in our current business that need our attention.  One was mechanization of a certain process.   We will save about P1,500 per unit and that adds up to x 300-->> P450,000 a year and if you add up interest that you dont pay to others, and the depreciation charges.  You can easily add up another P500,000 to the bottom line.

Now there is another area where we can mechanize and maybe we can save up to two laborers:   grass cutting.  There are available robotic lawn mower and maybe thats P250,000 x 2 =   P500,000.  We will have less head ache on manpower etc and their dynamics.    We can concentrate on marketing, and admin of managing the records, and selling



Income opportunities, apply now

Nation building via learning and being the best in business

We are HIRING.  






We are growing nation wide company focused on providing top notch customer service to our customers.    We have upgraded our entry level positions by as much as P4,000+ per month.  Our officers position salaries are as competitive with other industries.

We belong to the top 5 in the industries

Come and join our team.  Plenty of  opportunities for financial and career advance.

Entry level:


    2.  Accounting staff                           at San Carlos City, San Fernando City, Calamba, Calapan and                                                                    Oton  (5)
    3.  Drivers (transportation specialist)      at Calamba, Morong, San Fernando, San Carlos, City
    4.  Gardeners maintenance staff              San Fernando (2)   San Carlos City (2) Calamba (2) 
    5.  Lending staff -                                    3 staffers.    

Officers

    Malasiqui  -                 1, Calapan    -1,  Calamba - 1

    Lending operations  -  1

    Main office   -             3  (Asst Gm, HR, Gen Accounting)

    Funeral service  -        3 funeral directors

Minimum qualifications

    Educ attainment -   For GT and TS high school, for officie staff, college graduate with major
                                     related to job, eg.   Accounting - Accounting MajorCSS - marketing

    Experience -   preferred but nor required;  for officer, a minimum of 3 years in supervisory position

    Passionate, high level of integrity, excellent oral and written communications, computer literate
           GmailAI,  blogFBxls, word, 

Hurry apply now.   Prepare for:    stoppage of BPO because of US law to bring home call center, the forthcoming Japan and US reset (economic woes)   We are glad PHL will be exempt for these forthcoming economic reset.   

APPLY, CALL TEXT NOW GMAIL LETTER OF INTENT AND CV


Send cv to letter of intent to:      jorge@holygardens.ph
Contact number                          +63908 928 7888



Wednesday, December 10, 2025

AI bubble burst - worse than dot.com burst, real estate burst

Nation building via learning and being the best in business

History just shows us that we never learn.  Greed pervades.  Herd mentality is forever.   We follow trends even if that trend leads us to loss or perdition.   The pied piper wins.

What do we do next, how do lick our wounds, how do we recover the losses.  

The conservatives always go for the solid asset based wealth.  Common productive enterprises.    Food, water, insurance, transportation, health.   The future does not have to be nebulous or hazy.     The next big thing cant mean our perdition.  

How do we learn from our mistakes:





What is essential is invisible to the naked eye - from Little Prince

Nation building via learning and being the best in business





We often see the book cover and see only one side of the coin or the business.  The business model that you see may be actually  losing money

1 The car dealership may barely make a profit on the unit they sell but they earn on:
     1.  Parts and lubricants
     2.  Servicing the unit
     3.  Insurance
     4.  Repairs

2.  We on the other hand barely make 5% on the unit we sell but we make up for the services too.  Our margin on service is 50-60%

3.   A billiard hall may not make money on the pool tables but earn money on food and drinks, tournaments, memberships, events

4.  As in Amazon they lose money on membership prime ($20 b) a year but make up for it in sales and video streaming

5.  A computer shop makes money on peripherals and consumables

6.  A gasoline station makes money on retail rentals rather than gasoline

7.   A condo or subdivision makes more money on recurring income:   H20 sewarage and building admin

8.  A retail establishment makes money on rack rentals rather than the sales of good.   Prime locations are paid by manufacturers more than margin of each product  (Sales - cgs)

Japan's auto industry facing uncertainity

Nation building via learning and being the best in business

Will Toyota remain the largest world automaker?

All ready we see pressures and cracks in the Japan's automotive industry:

1.  The US tariff is hurting them and slowing down their sales
2.   BYD, China's EV dominance
3.   Aggressive moves by China to get hold of Japan supplier and former plants

What is  going to happen to Japan?  How will Toyota hold on to its leadership position? In the household electronic industry Japan has lost its dominance with the difficulties of Panasonic, Sharp, Toshiba and more.  China cheap manufacturing platform has something to do with their loss of leadership  and competitiveness

Nothing is forever.  Japanese juggernaut and manufacturing and car industry are losing it and China may soon replace them.   And then this financial difficulty they are currently experiencing:   tariff wars with USA, loss to EVs, yen weakness?

What would you suggest?


Japan's nuclear counter attack tsunami vs US dollar; this ends period of prosperity and economic stability for US

Nation building via learning and being the best in business

For years it is said that Japan, ever since the Plaza accord has propped up and provided cheap money for US, and propped up  the latters economy  for decades:    1.  low if not zero interest, 2.  cheap yen vs US dollar.  And were also buyers of higher yielding US treasuries.

But lately Japan has taken steps on its economy and fiscal matters that others seen as an attack on US dollar or economy.  (It could be because of Trumps tariff which is hurting Japan's export.!!)

      1.  They have hinted on raising bond rates (bond pricing hitting 1.9%)
      2.  They have stopped buying US treasuries
      3.   They are dumping US treasuries (almost $200+ billion for a quarter)

This affects:

     1. Carry trade  trades involving borrowing cheap yen and investing in higher yielding stocks and 
          treasuries.  It is estimated to be between 12 -20 trillion dollars.   Its unwinding
     2.  May affect liquidity
     3   US economy stability as no one would continue to buy US debt
     4.  US quality of life.  This sort of interest rate subsidy would  end and jack up housing and
           credit card % rate

All the while the environment of US economy is not at all conducive 
The ongoing trend of de dollarization:

    1.   Declining importance of US as reserve currency
    2.   De dollarization by BRICS, USSR, UAE India in their trades
    3    End of Petro and Euro dollars
    4.   US huge $37 trillion in debt

How will these affect the Philippine economy.?

Shall we weather these economic storms?

What are our countermeasures?

In this economic environment, how will you  plan?   How will you strategize?   Its vastly different from the world we were born and grew...It will make your head spin
           

Saturday, December 6, 2025

YT experienced massive declines in viewership and they solved this with simple trick

Nation building via learning and being the best in business









The people at Google are smart people and we should emulate their ingenuity.   Once their engineers and programmers noticed decline in YT video viewership.  After a view of a video, the reader would leave not to come back again.   

The Google engineer simply solve this by:

   1.  Putting on the right hand pane a thumbnail of other videos
   2.  The other videos that are related posted on the last page of the video just played
   3.  Review button on the video.  
   4.  The shorts.  People have such attention span that they view short videos (FB version - reels)

Brilliant eh.  By doing this YT viewership climbed exponentially

How the gold and bitcoin reset (double talk for currency devaluation) will erase US $37 trillion debt and cause financial difficulties for most citizens?

Nation building via learning and being the best in business

How will this impact your business.   This is going to be completed in 2027.    

Here is the plan:

1.  President DT under the Economy Emergency Plan has all ready signed an EO protecting the Bitcoin  US has about $200 billion of this which were bought and confiscated in the drug raids.    US has 8000 tons worth of gold valued at $42.22 dollars in US treasury books amounting to $200 billion 

2.   The govt will revalue the ff assets:

       gold from $42.22 to P20,000/ounce which will increase  value to $5 trillion and bitcoin to $1,000,000         each from current market value of about $100,000 which will revalue the bitcoin to  $2 trillion.

       The $37 trillion will now be backed by 20% of total govt assets and the debt of $37 trillion will be but erased.

        Brilliant eh

But such move will:

      1.  devalue the dollar
      2.  gold can be confiscated
      3.  wipe out the value of savings and retirement including salaries and wages
      4.   there may be hyper inflation

Who will benefit:

     1.  The US Fed
     2.  The US govt  it will now appear stronger and financially sound
     3.  Politicians  - they dont have to raise taxes or worry about the massive spending deficit they are doing.  or worry about paying the massive $1.2 trillion in interest alone to the $37 trillion debt.  

     And this happening right now as:

     1.  There is pending crash of the financial market just like in 2008 because of overvalued stock
     2.   The unravelling of the estimated $20 trillion carry trade (investments in stock and other financial instruments by borrowing cheap Japan Yen and investing in other financial high yield financial instruments. 

    This post foresees difficulties and economic difficulties in USA especially for its 300 million citizens.  Its a great pain to solve its difficulties.  (And many foresee that a collapse of finances could lead to the demise of the empire as it happened to UK and Rome before)   While PHL is still far away the awesome and massive of plunder of the PHL treasury could cause the same pain.  Its time to execute and punish the plunderers from executive and legislative branches of the govt



    


Lose some, gain plenty - the story about Amazon prime - THE BENEFITS OF THE FREE (ALSO FREEMIUM)

Nation building via learning and being the best in business






This is about the strategy of Jeff Bezos at Amazon.   Sales were declining and their team was a at loss on how to arrest the decline.   After long brainstorming and research they found out that shipping was causing the friction that rubbed sales the wrong way

So they established the Amazon prime.  For only $__ subscription, membership a year, you could have unli shipment.    Before customers buy 1 to 3x per year.  But with the Prime membership, the customers bought on the average 27 x a year.   Translating into 27x more sales

Amazon loses $20b a year on the free/reduced shipping cost.     But it is accelerating its sales.  Now the prime is into video streaming  now an enemy of Netflix.  The customer base is a rich mine for other businesses.    

Google is in freemium model.  It does not charge for the search engine but makes up for ads and maybe google maps  and YT ads.!

So what could be causing friction in the company.  We hypothesized it could be the _ permit  or ___certificate.  It may be made FREE - DEDUCTED FROM THE SERVICE or even processed by our staff.   For the lot sales, we may make the transfer fee FREE.