Sunday, December 14, 2025

3 things very wealthy people do before a market crash (so that we can prepare)

Nation building via learning and being the best in business 













 It happened in 1933, 2008, is it happening in 2025 There are three things that super rich investors do before a crash (do they have something we dont have why they can see a crash before it happens?

This is what they do:

1.  They liquidate their assets (especially if they can see if the assets:  stocks real estate are overvalued)
     They position themselves into liquid assets getting ready for 2.  We see Buffet with $325 Billion hoard of cash
2.   They position themselves into precious metal like silver or gold.  In the case of Bill Gates, positioning for farmland invested in 275,000 acres of farmland
3.   They to take advantage of debased financial assets with put option, debt swaps, and shorting to do bargain hunting and or vulture investing.




Buying a put option

You can also buy a put option to express a directional bias. A long put is similar to short selling a stock. The outlook is for the stock to decline after the put has been purchased and subsequently sell the option back at a higher price. Because of certain account type restrictions you may not be able to short stock, so buying a long put enables you to have a bearish position in a security with reduced capital allocation. 

Long puts have defined risk (the original cost of the option is the most you can lose) and undefined profit potential. Puts are typically more expensive than calls because investors are willing to pay a higher premium to protect against downside risk when hedging positions.

Selling a put option can also be an advantageous strategy to purchase a stock, because the credit from the put option reduces the cost basis of the stock position if assigned. Many investors sell puts on stocks they are happy to own and gladly accept payment in return. A short put option can be thought of as a limit order. 

For example, you might sell a put at a price you believe is support. Instead of waiting for the share price to fall and trigger your order, you essentially get “paid” to wait for the price to decline below the short put option’s strike price. If the stock price never drops below the strike price, you get to keep the premium.

Think about it: if a stock is trading at $102, and you would buy it at $100, why not sell a put with a $100 strike price? If you receive $5.00 for selling the put, you’ve reduced the position’s cost-basis to $95. You’re already up $500 per contract!

(Note: to sell a “naked” put, or cash-secured put, your account must have enough capital to purchase 100 shares at the contract’s strike price).

Put option spreads

While some of these use cases for put options may sound too good to be true, there are risks associated with selling options. As mentioned before, a short put option has undefined risk. That’s where spreads come in handy.

A spread combines two or more options into a single position to define risk for the seller or reduce cost for the buyer.  

bull put credit spread has the same bullish bias as a single-leg short put, but a long put is purchased below the short option to define the position’s risk. You’ll take in less credit because you have to buy a put option, and the credit received is still your maximum potential profit. But you can rest easy knowing your max loss is defined by the spread width minus the credit received.

For example, if a $5 wide bull put spread sold at $50 collects a $1.00 credit, the maximum profit potential is $100 if the stock price is above the short put at expiration. The max loss is $400 if the stock price is below $45 at expiration because the broker would automatically buy shares at $50 and sell shares at $45. (Remember, short put = buy, long put = sell). The trade’s break-even point is the short put strike minus the premium received.





Joseph Kennedy, Ackman are very famous for this.  They made their killing when the market was crashing.

Why is crash just around the corner (6 most to 18 mos)

1.  Overvaluedd stocks
2.  Huge US 38trillion debt
3.  Crashing real estate:

      House overpriced at 50%  (spreading homelessness in US)
      30-40% vacancy rate of  commercial real estate)
4.   End of petrodollar
5.   End of US as reserve currency
6.   Unwinding of the carry trade due to yen increase of bond rate.    Japan problem can take US with 
      it      

Gold mine for investors - real estate in the provinces (even farmlands, phase 2 in trades for zillionaires)

Nation building via learning and being the best in business

Investors have focussed on MM condos, commercial, rentals and neglected the provinces.  Local investors have bet consistently in local developments:   malls, rentals, subdivision.    We are small player but we played out in the province.

The second phase for traders/investors in volatile market is to invest in gold.  The substitute by Gates and Zuckerberg is to purchase farmlands.  This is the option for stock and financial instrument trader.  This was the playbook for Antonio to go into RE in the 80s with Youngstown development






Saturday, December 13, 2025

Focus enables you to see other possibilities and solutions to the business processes which can add tremendously to efficiency and wealth creation

Nation building via learning and being the best in business








                                               Wide cut, zero turn


                                       DIY RC lawn mower with caster wheel and  RC accessories
                                       RC receiver and motor can be installed easily (not available in PHL?

                                            PC 40 soon to be delivered either in LU or HGGMP


                                                2022,   placed on ad Dec 9, Php 827,000


Machinery line Philippines Komatsu pc 40

This post thought of diversifying into agri forestry products But there seem to be many problems and gaps in our current business that need our attention.  One was mechanization of a certain process.   We will save about P1,500 per unit and that adds up to x 300-->> P450,000 a year and if you add up interest that you dont pay to others, and the depreciation charges.  You can easily add up another P500,000 to the bottom line.

Now there is another area where we can mechanize and maybe we can save up to two laborers:   grass cutting.  There are available robotic lawn mower and maybe thats P250,000 x 2 =   P500,000.  We will have less head ache on manpower etc and their dynamics.    We can concentrate on marketing, and admin of managing the records, and selling