Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Did the carry trade trigger the market sell off? Is Japan taking down the world finances
Looking forward to the future of business
Is this worse than WWII waged by Japan?
There is huge carry trade happening about as some traders estimate to be between $10 to $15 trillion. Carry trade is just an arbitrage game. You get low interest rate from Japan say at 0.80% and invest this in US Treasuries at 3.5% and profit from the interest differential. Or if the yen sinks further, you can earn on the currency too. However, things can go south as it is now: Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, and the Yen price is on the upsurge.
Thus funds hedge managers are unloading their carry trades because they will be losing with rising Yen exchange rate, and higher interest rates in Japan.
And probably this is the cause of the sell off - investors and fund managers getting rid of carry trade portfolio which are now in losing/negative terriroty
That is why: this post does not advocate paper shuffling business, making money out of other people miseries. Do business that really generate values for customers for the world like construction, manufacturing, agriculture, construction. Arbitrage is a zero sum game: there are losers and winners, gain gained at the expense/hurt of others.
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