Is the world on the road to recession (perdition?)

Looking forward to the future of business

Global sell off intensifies

The US, Germany, Korean, Japan stock markets are on decline.   Losing by as much as double digit %

Everybody is spooked by the following events:    Possible escalation of Iran Isreal conflict, high unemployment rate in US, delayed rate reduction by US Fed.     And may be just may be to the presence of carry trade in Japan.

Nikkei fell 12% reminding us of the 2018 crash.  Tech stocks:   like Nvidia and Apple are mostly affected

Amazon lost double digit causing wealth of Jeff Bezos, one of top 5 richest men in the world to plummet big time

Pundits are wondering if Fed is interested in:   fighting inflation or preventing recession.  Well they raised rates to fight inflation

This is what doomsayers have been saying:  Schiff, Kiyosaki, Buffet are saying long long time ago.  And many did not pay heed.  At times the stock market went into the bull territory.   

This post being in the MSME territory would like to focus on micro market.  But we can not deny that Macro market, like the stock market health can affect micro market.   (Well the stock market reacts to economic fundamentals) and a plummeting stock market warns us to be prepared.

Buffett happens to be awash in cash when market is about to crash; he goes bargain hunting when stocks fall in value

Looking forward to the future of business

We can only guess that the market is about to crash, or stock prices will be discounted.   He did this before and is now selling off stocks that had increased in value.  That is how Berkshire makes  profits from market crash.    (A bear player?  and sells off in Bull market)

Brilliant eh....

Buffett indicator:       Stock Market Cap   Indicated by Wilshire 5000/GDP

The Buffet strategy does not seem to be rocket science.   Just stay liquid when you see the market overhyped and the bubble is ready to burst.   Then go bargain hunting (just like in 2008 for the BofA stocks which they are unloading now)

 Compare this with historical average.  Higher or lower?   (Lower -  buy)  Higher, expect the difference to be the amount of crash.    So when that happens dont buy!!!

It should give the % of overvalue of stock market cap over GDP and would indicate the % of crash

Rubbing elbows with the rich and famous - in laws of Kings

Professor on Entrepreneurship

Rizal Philippines
October 6, 2019

When he was still alive (he died about 3 weeks ago), our Chinese business partner told me that one of his in laws was a motel magnate. And he was wondering in what way I was connected with the company. I told him that the motel of his in law was a favorite case.  And I love it the way it distracts straight thinking from the students in case analysis and discussion. Some even mentioned that it was the result of one of the owners veering towards being a devout Christian.  But businessmen will be businessmen no matter what the religious inclination is.  Some are disciples of the Church but when it comes to money, when it comes to business, business is business....  My name pala sticks out in the search engine for Victoria court because of blog posts made on the company/case

  A way to remove tension and formality in the class, and what conclusion do people have about the case.

The case goes like this:  the owner was re positioning the motel as a medium priced hotel and having thematic room.  The conclusion is that the top execs were not successful in the re positioning adventure, but they were successful in changing the  price points of the industry.

The said motel exec owner  died in a helicopter crash near Cuenca (Mt. Maculot) mentioning that he is a billionaire (as a result of this case exercise?)

From CNN 2015 - Motel chain owner dies in helicopter crash

ABS CBN You tube post on the heli crash

Dow Jones Could Crash to 3,000 level?!

Promoting Entrepreneurial Revolution


Harry Dent


 

DJIA





In this post by Henry Dent, from Wall Street Daily, Harry Dent as with other researcher at Wall Street:  Weiss, Strasberg, predicts a financial collapse:  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) which is enjoing a high, a bull run,  could crash by 70% down to 3,000 wiping out wealth and savings of many investors.  This is scary and horrific.

Harry Dent made several correct prediction on financial markets:  crash, rally etc. We expect him to be right again.

In a typical Ji- Wei (there is opportunity in crisis), Dent proposes many strategies:

l.  Hold on to cash;

2.  Use cash to buy fire sale assets

3.  There are other books he sells for investors not to lose to profit and gain from this crisis.  (We know that this a pitch)

The causes of this crisis are all familiar.


 




l.  High unemployment;

2.  The subprime mortagages

3.  High govt deficit spending (that is just $l.3 trillion but could ballon to $3 trillion)

4.  High public and private debt.

Harry Dent Predicting Dow Jones Crash