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Friday, May 18, 2012

Central Bank: A great example of the coming financial repression


                      
                                 The European Central Bank in Frankfurt Germany

The prescription of the Sovereign Man is to eliminate central planning and for that matter Central Bank.

If there would be no

Central Banks, the followiing would be the advantage:

l.  The private companies would not take unnecessary risks since there could be no bail outs or savior;

2.  Governments would likewise be constrained to balance their books since they could not monetize their debt, or cause printing of money which is inflationary and destructive.


                          
                                          A US Central Bank


                                  
                                                Arab Central Bank


Central Banks are enemies of sovereign men;  of sovereign citizens because they cause the ordinary men to be poorer by their mistakes.

What hits me is the derivative exposure of JP Morgan, $70 trillion the size of the world economy.  If it were to collapse now..... Can a Central Bank, or consortium of Central Bank save JP Morgan and the world from this financial disaster? If you pile up all the money, I trillion dollars would be as tall as their HQ building and multiply that 70x.  That is staggering.  Are these assets solid, or are they being propped by other risky derivatives like the ones that sucked $2billion from the prestigious institution?

Will they not go by way of Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers?

My mental models of IB at Wall Street which is the summit of success in business finance and deal making all but collapsed, was vaporzied entirely.



                     
                               Towering Building and Towering Risky Assets


                        
 JPM Exposure to Derivatives is Too Risky and Scary


----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Simon Black <admin@sovereignman.com>
Sent: Tuesday, May 15, 2012 12:01 AM
Subject: A great example of the coming financial repression

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Sovereign Man

Notes from the Field

Date: May 14, 2012
Reporting From: London, England

[Editor's note: Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK, is filling in for Simon today.]

Imagine you are one of two people playing Monopoly. While you follow the rules religiously, the other player, who also happens to be the banker, does not.

He routinely appropriates properties. If he doesn't like the score on the dice, he simply changes them. He continually takes as much money from the bank as he likes. Whenever the rules don't suit he arbitrarily alters them in his favour.

Oh, and he hates to lose. Rather than concede defeat, he is perfectly willing to set fire to the table.



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Imagine no longer. This is the state of the financial markets. You are playing against the world's central banks.

For some time now, the Financial Times has been running articles (under the inauspicious label of 'Collateral Damage') discussing the merits or demerits of central banking. Only one contributor, Ron Paul, has challenged the status quo:

"[W]hile socialism and centralised economic planning have largely been rejected by free- market economists, the myth persists that central banks are a necessary component of market economies."

Every other contributor thus far has sought to defend central banking as a necessary part of the system... a view that seems categorically embraced by most people. In browsing through the comments of Dr. Paul's FT article, for example, one reader posted:

"The problem with blindly accepting Dr Paul's diagnosis is that he lacks the necessary qualifications to make a diagnosis. Would you trust a medical diagnosis made by Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi or Mervyn King ?"

No, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't trust an economic diagnosis from any of those individuals either. Given their track records, why would anyone?

Getting rid of central banks (over time, let us be realistic) would have several effects.

First, it would require insolvent commercial or investment banks to fail properly, as opposed to feeding off the blood of taxpayers indefinitely.

As an example, lest anyone regard the $2 billion loss recently announced by JP Morgan as comparatively trivial, it should perhaps be seen in the context of the same bank's overall derivatives exposure, which is shown graphically below.

JP Morgan Chase total derivatives exposure, as expressed in $1 trillion towers of dollar bills. Source: Demonocracy. 

JP Morgan's total derivatives exposure stands at $70.1 trillion, or roughly the same size as the entire world economy. Each of the $1 trillion towers in the image is double-stacked to a height of 930 feet (283 meters).

Second, eliminating central banks would require governments to balance their books, no longer able to monetize the debt through its relations with the central banker.

Third, asset prices would revert to being determined by the market, and not by unelected economist serving the interests of bankers and politicians.

As this is clearly not going to happen anytime soon, most investment managers seem content to embrace the system and continue playing the cards they've been dealt.

To give you an example, the FT reported that, last year, US pension funds for the very first time put more of their assets into bonds as opposed to equities.

Like many investors, these fund managers fail to understand the risks they're running and seem to have accepted the convention that nothing could possibly go wrong while central bankers are in charge.

Yet with Treasury yields as low as they are, this is unlikely to end well. The chart below shows the impact on investors who purchased British Gilts during the stagflation suffered in the UK during the 1970s.

Source: Frontier Investment Management

Investors who bought conventional Gilts in 1973 had to wait for 12 years to earn a positive real return on their investment.  And this is exactly the sort of financial repression we have to look forward to under the current system controlled by the political and central banking elite.


Tim Price
Director of Investment
PFP Wealth Management
Sovereign Man Contributor




 
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