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Friday, January 20, 2012

Dragon Outlook for the Philippines?

An Ateneo Graduate School of Business Advantage

Aside from the long shot prediction that PHL could be an N-ll until 2020, and one of the l6 largest economies of the world by 2050, things are looking up for PHL:

l.  Our banks have been seen as stronger than European counterparts;

2.  OFW remittances are up in December 20ll compared t the same period last year.

3.  The Eurozone worries has been dampened by IMF move to raise $600 billion as part of rescue package.

4.  The PHL is next in line for Moody's credit upgrade.   In January last year, Moodys upgraded PHL credit rating from positive to stable.  This year, it may go to 2 notches below investment grade. In December , S & P likewise upgraded PHL from positive to stable.   While Fitch, based in UK upgraded PHL from two notches to one notch below investment grade.

5.  And oh, yesterday PHISIX was at 4,700 its highest performance so far;  first time to breach 4,700.  This was led by energy and mining sectors.

6.  And oh yes, BSP cut, after a long time, interest rates by 25 bpps to cushion impact of recent world developments.

What is behind this rally?:   political climate, global developments?

Will PHL be able to sustain such robust performance?

However, ADB in its recently held briefing tends to be more cautious on the prospects of PHL for still having structural weaknesses.  ASEAN would grow at 7% while PHL will manage only 4.8%.

Why is ADB correct or wrong?

What can we as entrepreneurs, contribute to this continued positive development in PHL?


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